Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Emelec vs Leones del Norte: match prediction on 31 August 2026
Emelec
Leones del Norte
Prediction for
Win: Emelec
38%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
38%
1
30%
X
32%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 16:49- Эмелек — 13. place, 29 points after 26 games (8 wins, 8 draws, 10 losses)
- Леонес дель Нортэ — 9. place, 35 points after 26 games (9 wins, 8 draws, 9 losses)
- Эмелек, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Леонес дель Нортэ, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Эмелек — 0, 1 draws, Леонес дель Нортэ — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Emelec
WLWDW
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Leones del Norte
WLLWD
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Head to head 2
0Emelec
1Draw
1Leones del Norte
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 16:49Expected goals suggest a narrow Emelec win, but the conditions for that are fragile. The 1.1 expected goals for Emelec against 1.0 for Leones del Norte point toward a tight affair, but the 30% draw probability is high enough to warrant caution. The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%) and 0-0 (13%). Both teams have shown vulnerability in different periods: Emelec have conceded 38% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, while Leones del Norte have dropped 32% of theirs between the 16th and 30th minute.
Emelec sit 13th on 29 points after 26 matches, while Leones del Norte occupy 10th with 35. Leones del Norte have been marginally more consistent over the season, though their record of 9 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses mirrors Emelec's 8-8-10 split almost exactly.
Recent form offers no clear favourite. Both sides have collected just 4 points from their last 5 matches: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats each. Emelec's results include a 2-1 home victory over Tecnico Universitario and a goalless draw with Guayaquil City away, but they also lost 2-0 at home to Aucas and 2-0 away to LDU Quito. Leones del Norte's pattern is similar—a 2-0 away win against Manta, a 1-1 home draw with Barcelona SC, followed by heavy defeats including a 6-0 Copa Ecuador loss to LDU Quito.
The head-to-head record over recent years is evenly balanced. Two matches have been played, with each side taking one victory and one draw. Leones del Norte won 2-0 at home in May 2025, while the October 2025 Copa Ecuador fixture ended 0-0.