Guadalajara Women vs Pumas UNAM Women: match prediction on 31 August 2026

Guadalajara Women win this fixture. The hosts sit above the visitors in the table, have won six of ten meetings, and the model projects 2-1 in their favour..

Guadalajara's recent run

Guadalajara Women have won three of their last five matches, taking nine points from a possible fifteen. They opened the season with three consecutive victories — 3-1 against Querétaro Women at home, 4-1 away at Puebla Women, and 3-1 at Atlético San Luis Women — before falling 1-3 to Pachuca Women on 23 August. Their attack has found the net 11 times in that span, conceding eight. The visitors score heavily in the final quarter, with 25% of their goals arriving between the 76th and 90th minute, while 28% of their conceded goals come in the same period. That pattern suggests late-game vulnerability that Pumas UNAM could exploit.

Pumas UNAM's mixed results

Pumas UNAM Women occupy eighth place with six points from four matches — two wins and two defeats. Their last five outings produced two victories, one draw, and two losses for seven points. They beat Querétaro Women 5-0 at home on 21 August and won 2-1 away at Necaxa Women on 9 August, but those results sit alongside a 1-3 defeat to Pachuca Women and a heavy 2-5 loss to León Women at home. Their scoring distribution shows a different profile from Guadalajara: 35% of their goals come in the 31-45 minute window, while they have registered zero goals between the 46th and 60th minute. They have conceded 29 goals across their tracked period, with 24% arriving after the 75th minute.

Head-to-head record

Guadalajara Women have dominated this fixture historically. In ten meetings over recent years, they have won six, drawn twice, and lost twice. The most recent meeting on 10 February 2026 saw Pumas UNAM win 1-0 at home, but before that Guadalajara won 4-3 at home on 5 October 2025 and 1-0 away on 27 April 2025. At this venue, Guadalajara have won 2-0 on 25 April 2025 and drawn 0-0 on 18 April 2025. The pattern at home suggests Guadalajara are comfortable in this environment.

Model expectations

The statistical model projects Guadalajara Women to score two goals and Pumas UNAM to score one. The draw probability sits at 21%, with both teams to score at 55% and over three goals at 58%. The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), and 2-0 (10%). Guadalajara's expected goals figure reflects their attacking output of 11 goals in five matches, while Pumas UNAM's one-goal projection aligns with their 11 goals in five games but accounts for their inconsistency in the middle periods of matches.

When the prediction fails

This conclusion breaks down if Pumas UNAM score early and manage the game effectively. A red card for either side would also alter the dynamics significantly, particularly given that Guadalajara's N. Villarreal and Pumas UNAM's K. Gainor have each received one red card this season.