Kalighat Club vs Mohammedan SC: match prediction on 31 August 2026

Mohammedan SC to win with 65% confidence. The gap between fifth and twenty-third place is not just a table position — it is reflected in nine matches of form, nine matches of results, and a model that gives Mohammedan 1.7 expected goals against Kalighat's 0.8.

The visitors have won five times and lost only once this season. Their record of 5/3/1 puts them 15 points clear of the bottom side. Kalighat Club have not won a single game — three draws and six defeats — and sit on 3 points with a goal difference of -9.

Mohammedan's last five matches produced two wins, two draws and one loss. They beat Measurers 3:2 away and Calcutta Police 2:0 at home, while drawing with United and Police and losing 2:0 to Coal India. Kalighat's run is starkly different: one draw against Measurers and four defeats, conceding 11 goals and scoring just 2. The visitors have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five outings.

Expected goals point toward a narrow edge. The model's 0.8 for Kalighat suggests they most often score one goal or none; Mohammedan's 1.7 means they most often score one or two. The three most likely scorelines — 0:1 at 13%, 0:2 at 11%, 1:1 at 11% — all favour the visitors.

Kalighat are dangerous early. Half their four goals this season came in the opening 15 minutes, with another quarter between 16 and 30 minutes. They then go quiet, scoring nothing between 31 and 60 minutes. Mohammedan are more even, with 26% of their 19 goals falling in both the 16-30 and 46-60 windows. Their defensive vulnerability is in the first half too — 22% of goals conceded between 31-45 and 22% between 46-60.

Mohammedan have two players with booking concerns. Gaurav Bora carries three yellow cards and sits one booking from suspension. Joseph Lalmuanawma has two yellows and already served a red card ban. Neither is ruled out, but both would make life awkward if picked up.

This conclusion stops holding if Kalighat exploit their early scoring window and take a surprise lead. They have scored 50% of their goals in the first 15 minutes and could capitalise if Mohammedan start slow.