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Plzeň U20
Karlovy Vary U20
Prediction for Plzeň U20 — Karlovy Vary U20
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Khovd vs Tuv Azarganuud: match prediction on 21 September 2026
Khovd
Tuv Azarganuud
Prediction for
Win: Tuv Azarganuud
68%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
18%
1
15%
X
68%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 09:01- Ховд — 3. place, 3 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- Тув Азарганууд — 1. place, 6 points after 2 games (2 wins, 0 losses)
- Ховд, last 5 games: 1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses
- Тув Азарганууд, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Ховд — 3, Тув Азарганууд — 6
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Khovd
LDWWL
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
Tuv Azarganuud
WDWWW
4 wins · 1 draw
Head to head 9
3Khovd
0Draw
6Tuv Azarganuud
- 3 MayKhovd — Tuv Azarganuud0:9
- 12 Oct 2025Tuv Azarganuud — Khovd3:1
- 28 Sep 2025Tuv Azarganuud — Khovd4:2
- 18 Jun 2025Tuv Azarganuud — Khovd2:5
- 23 Mar 2025Khovd — Tuv Azarganuud4:2
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 09:01Tuv Azarganuud to win. The visitors carry momentum from three victories in their last five matches and dominated the most recent meeting 9-0 at Khovd's ground. The model projects 3.4 expected goals for the away side against 1.8 for the hosts, and the 89% probability of three or more goals in the match points toward an open contest where Tuv Azarganuud's attacking record should tell.
Tuv Azarganuud have won three of their last five matches, scoring eight goals and conceding five. Their only defeat in that span came 0-3 away at Deren on 3 July. They also secured a 2-2 draw in the AFC Challenge League against Tainan City on 11 August. Khovd's recent form is less convincing: two wins, one draw, two losses across five games. They scored 15 times but also conceded 13, including a 1-6 home defeat to Hunters and a 0-3 away loss to Khovd Western.
The last meeting on 3 May 2026 ended 0-9 to Tuv Azarganuud at Khovd's home ground. Over nine matches in recent years, Tuv Azarganuud have won six while Khovd have claimed three. The visitors have won three of the last four fixtures, including the 3-1 and 4-2 results at their own stadium in September and October 2025. The 0-9 rout establishes a clear psychological advantage.
Tuv Azarganuud sit in second place with six points from two matches, undefeated. Khovd occupy fourth place with three points from a single victory. The season is barely underway, but the visitors have already accumulated double the points of their opponents.
The projection gives Khovd 1.8 expected goals and Tuv Azarganuud 3.4. The most likely scorelines are 1-3 (7%), 2-3 (6%) and 1-2 (6%). Both teams to score carries an 80% probability. A draw is valued at only 15%. Khovd score 36% of their goals between the 61st and 75th minute, while Tuv Azarganuud concede 58% of their goals after the 76th minute. That late vulnerability is where the visitors could extend a lead. Khovd only survive if they score first and control the tempo. An early away goal exposes their late-game leaks.