Kolbotn Women vs Start Women: match prediction on 30 August 2026

Start Women are the clear favourites for this fixture. They lead the table with 20 points from 8 matches, an unbeaten record of 6 wins and 2 draws, while Kolbotn sit 12 points adrift in 8th place with just 8 points. The model backs this up: expected goals of 2.2 for Start against 1.3 for Kolbotn, with the most likely scoreline 1:2 at 10% probability.

Kolbotn have dropped to 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses in their last 5 matches, scoring just 5 goals while conceding 17. Their most recent outing ended 1:3 away at Grei on 16 August, and before that a 0:6 thrashing at home to Viking FK on 9 August. The only bright spot was a 3:2 victory away at Frigg Oslo on 2 August. Start, by contrast, have won 4 of their last 5, losing only 0:3 away at Arna-Bjørnar on 16 August. Their home form has been devastating: 5:2 against Viking FK on 22 August and 5:0 against Frigg Oslo on 9 August.

These sides have met only once recently, and it went to Start's advantage. On 15 May 2026, Start Women won 2:1 at home in the 1. divisjon Kvinner. That result fits the pattern: Start have not lost to Kolbotn in the data available, while Kolbotn have no victories over them.

Kolbotn concede 44% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, and Start score 31% of their goals in that same period. If Kolbotn can keep the scoreline tight and survive the opening half, they have a chance to exploit that late vulnerability. A draw suits the visitors — and given how they have struggled to score consistently, that is the main threat to Start's victory. The model puts the draw probability at just 20%, but in cup football those late goals can change everything.

Expected goals point to Start as the stronger side, but the model also indicates 64% probability that both teams score and 67% for three or more goals in the match. The three most likely scorelines are 1:2 (10%), 1:1 (9%), and 0:2 (8%). Kolbotn score 30% of their goals in the 46-60 minute window and another 30% in the 76-90 period, while Start's scoring peaks at 31% in the final quarter. If Kolbotn find a goal before the break, the match opens up.

This analysis changes if Kolbotn score early and Start struggle to break down a deep defensive block, or if the visitors' late-game vulnerability — 44% of goals conceded in the final 15 minutes — is exploited to equalise and drag the match into extra time.