Naft Bandar Abbas vs Naft Gachsaran: match prediction on 28 September 2026

Naft Bandar Abbas are the pick here at 45% confidence. They have won twice and drawn twice in five, while the visitors have managed nothing but two draws and three defeats.

Bandar Abbas have not lost since July. They beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 1:0 away on 22 September, drew 1:1 with Shahin Bandar Ameri at home a week later, and before that secured a 3:0 win over Be'sat Kermanshah. Their five goals have been tight—only two conceded across those five outings. Gachsaran have not won in the same period. Three defeats in five, including a 0:1 loss at home to Ario Eslamshahr on the last matchday. They have scored just twice and let in six.

The head-to-head is mixed but recent results lean one way. Bandar Abbas drew 1:1 at home in May 2026 and won 1:0 in January 2025. Gachsaran took a 2:0 victory at Bandar Abbas in October 2025 and a 3:2 win at home in May 2025. Two wins each, two draws across four meetings. What matters is the current form, not the historical balance.

The model expects 1.1 goals for the hosts and 0.6 for the visitors. A 0:0 result carries 21% probability, a 1:0 scoreline 19%, and a 1:1 draw 14%. The draw is the most likely single outcome at 37%, but the hosts are still the lean. Gachsaran score 75% of their goals after the 75th minute and concede 40% in the same window. That is not a pattern that helps against a side that keeps games tight.

The conclusion breaks if Gachsaran find an early goal. They concede 33% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and have shown they can score late. If they strike first, they could sit deep and frustrate a hosts side that has not been prolific in attack. A 0:0 result would then be the most likely finish, and the pick would fail.