Andebol 1
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Racing Club
Atlético Tucumán
Prediction for
Win: Racing Club
43%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Average bookmaker line (31)
Odds range
1.75 — 1.85
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 8
Bookmaker market
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 5 Sep, 01:46Racing Club are 1.80 favourites against Atlético Tucumán. The hosts have won four of the last six meetings, including three away victories at this venue, and the model expects them to edge a tight affair 1:0.
Racing's recent record offers little comfort. One win, one draw, three defeats in five matches has left them with just four points and a 4:7 goal tally. They lost 1:3 away at Independ. Rivadavia on 31 August and 0:1 at home to Banfield on 14 August. They have kept only one clean sheet in that period, against Belgrano in the cup.
Atlético Tucumán have turned a corner. Two wins and two draws in five games has brought eight points and a 6:2 scoring record. They beat Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1:0 away on 17 August and dismantled Independiente 4:0 in the Copa Argentina on 12 August. Their last two league matches were goalless draws at home against Belgrano Cordoba and Instituto Cordoba.
Racing sit eighth with 21 points from 16 matches, while Atlético Tucumán are thirteenth with 14. The gap between them is seven points, and it has not closed despite the visitors' better run.
The head-to-head is where Racing's advantage lies. They have won four of the last six encounters, including a 3:0 victory at Atlético Tucumán's ground in March 2024 and a 4:0 win in March 2022. The visitors have won only once in that span, a 1:0 result in September 2024. Racing have scored 12 goals in those six meetings and conceded four. The model projects 1.2 goals for Racing and 0.9 for Atlético Tucumán.
Racing have conceded 26% of their goals after the 75th minute, and Atlético Tucumán have conceded 30% in that period themselves.
The model's figures suggest a low-scoring affair. Both teams to score carries 42% probability, while three or more goals is 35%. The most likely outcomes are 1:0 (14%), 1:1 (13%), and 0:0 (12%).
Pick: Racing Club at 1.80. The prediction does not hold if Atlético Tucumán can maintain their recent defensive shape and exploit Racing's late-game vulnerability, particularly if the match drags into stoppage time or a late penalty.