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Plzeň U20
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Prediction for Plzeň U20 — Karlovy Vary U20
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Thimphu vs Ugyen Academy: match prediction on 21 September 2026
Thimphu
Ugyen Academy
Prediction for
Win: Thimphu
70%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
70%
1
17%
X
13%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 13:12- Тхимпху — 4. place, 25 points after 15 games (8 wins, 1 draws, 6 losses)
- Угьен Академи — 10. place, 4 points after 15 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 13 losses)
- Тхимпху, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses
- Угьен Академи, last 5 games: 0 wins, 5 losses
- Head-to-head: 1 games, Тхимпху — 1, Угьен Академи — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Thimphu
DWWWW
4 wins · 1 draw
Ugyen Academy
LLLLL
5 losses
Head to head 1
1Thimphu
0Draw
0Ugyen Academy
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 13:12Thimphu to win, 85% confidence
The gap between these sides is measured in points and in results. Thimphu sit fourth with 25 points from 15 matches, while Ugyen Academy languish at the bottom with just 4. The recent encounter on 13.09.2026 ended 6:0 in Thimphu's favour, and the model expects them to score 2.4 goals against 0.9 for the visitors. A home victory is the logical outcome.
Thimphu have not lost in five matches. Four wins and one draw have yielded 13 points and 12 goals scored. The 4:0 away victory at Tsirang on 16.09.2026 showed their attacking reach, while the 3:0 home win over Transport United demonstrated control. They concede sparingly—just 3 goals in the same period—and the model's expectation of 2.4 goals fits this trajectory.
Ugyen Academy's record is stark. Five defeats in five matches, 21 goals conceded against 2 scored. The 10:0 home loss to Paro on 08.09.2026 and the 6:0 result against Thimphu just eight days ago reveal a side struggling at both ends. They have not won since 30.07.2026 and sit 21 points from safety.
The head-to-head record shows one meeting this season, with Thimphu winning 4:2 away at Ugyen Academy on 16.06.2026. That result preceded the 6:0 home victory, suggesting a pattern rather than a fluke. The visitors have not won here in any recent encounter, and their current form offers little reason to expect otherwise.
The model gives the draw a 17% probability and expects both teams to score at 56%. The most likely scorelines are 2:0 and 2:1, each at 10%, followed by 1:0 at 8%. A 3:0 or 4:0 result would not surprise given Ugyen's defensive record—13 losses in 15 matches and 50 goals conceded across all competitions.
They score 50% of their goals in the first 15 minutes and have conceded 16% in that period. An early goal could change the dynamic, though Thimphu's 29% of goals in the 46-60 minute window suggests they are dangerous after the break.