Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Luch Women vs CSKA Moskva Women: match prediction on 24 September 2026
Luch Women
CSKA Moskva Women
Prediction for
Win: CSKA Moskva Women
72%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
33%
1
67%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 16:38- Луч Женщины — 7. place, 2 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
- ЦСКА Москва (жен.) — 2. place, 6 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Луч Женщины, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- ЦСКА Москва (жен.), last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Луч Женщины — 0, ЦСКА Москва (жен.) — 7
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Luch Women
WLWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
CSKA Moskva Women
WWWWW
5 wins
Head to head 7
0Luch Women
0Draw
7CSKA Moskva Women
- 5 Nov 2025Luch Women — CSKA Moskva Women26:42
- 10 Dec 2024Luch Women — CSKA Moskva Women25:37
- 24 Sep 2024CSKA Moskva Women — Luch Women29:28
- 10 Jan 2024CSKA Moskva Women — Luch Women39:27
- 7 Sep 2023Luch Women — CSKA Moskva Women24:31
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 22 Sep, 16:38CSKA Moskva Women are the clear favourites to win this Super League Women fixture. They have won every one of the seven meetings between the sides, sit second in the table with a perfect record, and the model expects them to score 32.6 goals compared to Luch Women's 25.5. A draw would be the only outcome that overturns this conclusion, though the model assigns that a 0% probability.
CSKA Moskva Women won all three opening rounds. Three wins from three matches, six points, and they have not drawn in any of their last five outings either. Their recent record reads 4 wins and 1 loss, with that solitary defeat coming away to Rostov-Don Women in May. They have scored 166 goals in those five matches, averaging 33.2 per game, which puts them at the top of the attacking charts. The 35:25 victory at home against Astrahanochka Women on 20 September was their latest, and the 37:19 win away at Izhevsk Women followed shortly after.
Luch Women occupy seventh place with just 2 points from 3 matches, but that tally includes 1 win and 2 draws. They have not lost a league game yet. Their last five matches show 3 wins and 2 losses, with goals running at 152 for and 125 against. The 25:29 defeat away to Togliatti Women on 20 September was their most recent result, and they had lost 28:35 away to Chernomorochka Women earlier in September.
The head-to-head record is unambiguous. CSKA Moskva Women have won all seven meetings, including a 42:26 victory at Luch Women's ground in November 2024 and a 37:25 win at home in December 2024. The only close result was a 29:28 CSKA win at home in September 2024. Luch Women have never managed a point against them across seven attempts. That pattern does not suggest a sudden reversal is imminent.
The model's expected goals figure for CSKA Moskva Women stands at 32.6, while Luch Women are projected at 25.5. The draw probability is listed at 0%, and 3 or more goals at 0%. Those figures point toward a comfortable CSKA victory, and the margin between the two projections—7.1 goals—indicates they should win by a reasonable distance.
My conclusion rests on the consistency of CSKA's form and the completeness of their head-to-head dominance. The only scenario that would invalidate this assessment is a draw, which the model does not anticipate. If Luch Women were to secure a point, it would require something beyond their current trajectory of two draws and one win from three league matches.