Gorky N. Novgorod vs Kemerovo: match prediction on 9 September 2026

Kemerovo to win. They have beaten Gorky N. Novgorod three times in four meetings, including two consecutive 3-0 victories in the Russian Cup earlier this year, and the visitors' recent form—two wins and three losses—outmatches the hosts' one win and four defeats. The model expects both sides to score 2.4 goals, yet assigns 0% probability to a draw, a figure I take to mean the simulation favours a decisive result; given Kemerovo's dominance in the head-to-head, that points away from the home side.

Gorky N. Novgorod sit third in the table with 8 points from 6 matches, a record of 3 wins and 3 losses, but their last five games tell a different story: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses, with 5 goals scored and 13 conceded. Their only victory in that run came against Surgut region at home, a 3-1 result; the other four matches ended in defeat, including two heavy losses to Kemerovo. The hosts have not kept a clean sheet in their last four games.

Kemerovo's last five matches brought 2 wins and 3 losses, 6 goals for and 9 against. Their two victories came against Gorky N. Novgorod, both by the same 3-0 scoreline, while their defeats included two 0-3 losses to Dinamo-Lo in the Russian Cup and a 0-3 loss away to Zenit Saint Petersburg in the Superliga. The visitors have not lost to Gorky N. Novgorod since November 2025, when they won 3-1 at home.

The head-to-head record over the past year shows Kemerovo with 3 wins and Gorky N. Novgorod with 1. The most recent meetings were both cup matches: Kemerovo won 3-0 away on 05.04.2026 and 3-0 at home on 01.04.2026. Before that, in the Superliga, Kemerovo won 3-2 away on 27.01.2026 and lost 1-3 at home on 13.11.2025. The visitors have not lost a competitive fixture against the hosts in over a year.

The model expects 2.4 goals for each side, a figure that suggests a tight contest, yet it assigns 0% probability to a draw and 0% to both teams scoring. These numbers sit uneasily together, but I take them to indicate a decisive result is most likely. Kemerovo to win, 2-1. This conclusion stops holding if the model's expected goals prove more reliable than the head-to-head record, or if Gorky N. Novgorod's home advantage in the cup proves decisive.