Greece vs Slovakia: match prediction on 17 September 2026

Greece are slight favourites to take all three points from this clash, and the model backs a narrow home victory at 65% confidence. Slovakia have lost three straight and will need to break that pattern to survive, while Greece have won their last two matches and sit top of the table with a perfect record.

Greece lost 1-3 to Sweden on 15 September but bounced back with 3-1 away wins against Slovenia and Italy before that. They have won two of their last five matches and sit 12 points clear after four games with four wins and no defeats.

Slovakia lost 1-3 to Sweden on 16 September and have lost three in a row across all competitions. They beat the Czech Republic 3:0 and Slovenia 3:0 in between, but lost to Italy 1-3 and Finland 1-3. They have won two of their last five, are level on 9-9 for goals, and sit nine points behind Greece after three defeats.

The pressure sits squarely on the visitors.

The model expects Greece to score 1.5 goals and Slovakia 1.3, with the model assigning zero probability to a draw, both teams scoring, or three-plus goals.

A draw suits Slovakia if they can control the tempo and limit Greece's early attacks. If Slovakia start aggressively and score first, the match opens up and the away side can exploit space on the counter. The forecast shifts if Greece fail to convert their early chances and Slovakia take advantage of any defensive lapses.