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Porto
ABC Braga
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72%
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Lokomotiv Izumrud vs Barnaul: match prediction on 10 September 2026
Lokomotiv Izumrud
Barnaul
Prediction for
Win: Lokomotiv Izumrud
80%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
80%
1
20%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 14:06- Локомотив Изумруд — 4. place, 1 points after 3 games (0 wins, 3 losses)
- Барнаул — 3. place, 3 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Локомотив Изумруд, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Барнаул, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 19 games, Локомотив Изумруд — 10, Барнаул — 9
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Lokomotiv Izumrud
LLWWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Barnaul
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 26
15Lokomotiv Izumrud
0Draw
11Barnaul
- 26 AprBarnaul — Lokomotiv Izumrud0:3
- 25 AprBarnaul — Lokomotiv Izumrud3:2
- 11 JanLokomotiv Izumrud — Barnaul3:0
- 10 JanLokomotiv Izumrud — Barnaul3:1
- 22 Dec 2024Lokomotiv Izumrud — Barnaul3:0
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 8 Sep, 14:06Lokomotiv Izumrud to win at home against Barnaul in the Russian Cup on 10 September. The model expects 2.5 goals for the hosts and 1.6 for the visitors. The model favours a home win.
Lokomotiv Izumrud sit fourth in the Russian Cup standings with one point from three matches—no wins, three defeats. Barnaul occupy third place with three points from three games, one victory and two losses. The gap between them is two points, not four as some might recall from earlier standings.
The hosts have lost their last three league matches. They beat Stroitel Minsk 3:2 at home on 9 September. Before that came defeats to Nizhnevartovsk 1:3 away and Volzhanin Kostroma 1:3 at home. Lokomotiv Izumrud have won three of their last five matches overall, scoring 11 goals and conceding eight.
Barnaul's recent record mirrors their opponents' volatility. They lost 1:3 to Chelyabinsk at home on 9 September, then suffered defeats to Magnitka-Universitet 2:3 and 3:0 at home. Their only victory in the last five came 3:0 against Magnitka-Universitet on 9 May. The visitors have won two and lost three in that span, with nine goals scored and eleven conceded.
The head-to-head history shows Lokomotiv Izumrud dominance at home. They won 3:0 against Barnaul on 26 April 2026 in the Vysshaya Liga A, and before that 3:0, 3:1, 3:0 and 3:2 across four consecutive home meetings in December 2024 and January 2026. In those six recent encounters, Lokomotiv Izumrud won five and Barnaul one. The visitors have not won here since 25 April 2026.
The model projects 2.5 and 1.6, backing a home win.
Recent H2H at this venue supports the model's lean. It stops holding if Barnaul score first and can then control the tempo. A quick goal would change their approach from cautious to aggressive, and Lokomotiv Izumrud may struggle to respond if they fall behind early.