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Prediction for Kolstad — HC Kriens-Luzern
57%
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Slovenia vs Serbia: match prediction on 21 September 2026
Slovenia
Serbia
Prediction for
Win: Slovenia
86%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
86%
1
14%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 20:12- Словения — 2. place, 10 points after 5 games (3 wins, 2 losses)
- Сербия — 3. place, 7 points after 5 games (3 wins, 2 losses)
- Словения, last 5 games: 0 wins, 5 losses
- Сербия, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Словения — 6, Сербия — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Slovenia
LWLWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Serbia
LWWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 8
7Slovenia
0Draw
1Serbia
- 19 JulSerbia — Slovenia0:3
- 20 Jul 2025Serbia — Slovenia2:3
- 30 Jul 2024Slovenia — Serbia3:0
- 23 Jun 2024Serbia — Slovenia2:3
- 8 Oct 2023Slovenia — Serbia3:0
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 19 Sep, 20:12Slovenia win, confidence 86%. The Slovenians have won all six meetings in this period, a record that outweighs their recent form and gives them the edge against Serbia on Monday.
Slovenia beat Serbia 3:0 at the Olympic Games in October 2023, then 3:1 in the Nations League the following month. They followed with a 3:0 victory in Slovenia in July 2024, a 3:2 win away in Belgrade in June 2024, and most recently a 3:0 triumph in Serbia last July. Serbia have not won a single match against their neighbours across these six encounters.
Both sides share identical records in their last five matches—two wins and three losses—but the quality of results differs. Slovenia have scored 9 goals and conceded 10, while Serbia have netted just 7 and let in 13. Slovenia's wins came against Sweden away and Czech Republic at home; Serbia's victories over Denmark and the Netherlands both went to three sets. The Slovenians also sit 3 points clear in the standings with 10 points to Serbia's 7.
The model projects Slovenia to score 2.6 goals and Serbia 1.4, with a 0% probability for a draw.
A draw would break this conclusion. If Serbia manage to take the first set and then slow the pace, the match could drift into a fourth or fifth set where momentum shifts. That is the only scenario that undermines the prediction.