Spala vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki: match prediction on 14 October 2026

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki are the clear favourites to extend their perfect record against Spala, and the data leaves no room for doubt. They sit one place above the hosts in the table and bring more attacking threat, with the model projecting 2.1 expected goals for Lechia compared to 1.2 for Spala.

Spala's situation is dire. They have lost every match this season, accumulating just one point from four games. They scored only three goals across five games while conceding fifteen, and their most recent outing ended 2-3 at home against Swidnik. They struggle to score and cannot contain opponents.

Lechia have not fared much better, but they have shown they can win. One victory in five matches—that 3-2 away win at Jaworzno on 1 October—proves they are capable of taking points. Their last five matches show one win and four losses, with seven goals scored and fourteen conceded.

They won 3-0 at home in October 2025 and again in October 2024, while Spala managed only a single goal in defeats at home on 29 January 2026 and 17 March 2024. The visitors have never lost here, and the pattern shows no sign of changing.

Spala are projected to score 1.2 goals, Lechia 2.1. The probability of a draw is listed as 0%, and the likelihood of both teams scoring is also 0%. Three or more goals in the match are projected at 0%.

This conclusion stops holding if Spala can replicate the performance that earned them their only win of the season—a 3-2 home victory over Czarni Radom on 23 March 2026. That result proved they are capable of beating opponents, and if they can channel that energy against Lechia, the visitors' dominance could be challenged. If Lechia repeat their recent form of losing their last match 2-3, they may not be at their best.