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Porto
ABC Braga
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72%
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Volzhanin Kostroma vs Tyumen: match prediction on 11 September 2026
Volzhanin Kostroma
Tyumen
Prediction for
Win: Tyumen
75%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
25%
1
75%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 14:40- Волжанин Кострома — 2. place, 6 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- Тюмень — 1. place, 9 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
- Волжанин Кострома, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Тюмень, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 11 games, Волжанин Кострома — 1, Тюмень — 10
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Volzhanin Kostroma
LWWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Tyumen
WLWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 15
3Volzhanin Kostroma
0Draw
12Tyumen
- 7 MarTyumen — Volzhanin Kostroma3:0
- 16 Nov 2025Volzhanin Kostroma — Tyumen0:3
- 15 Nov 2025Volzhanin Kostroma — Tyumen0:3
- 2 Mar 2025Volzhanin Kostroma — Tyumen2:3
- 1 Mar 2025Volzhanin Kostroma — Tyumen0:3
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 14:40Tyumen are the clear favourites to win this Russian Cup clash. The visitors have won 10 of the 11 meetings between these sides, and the model gives them a 2.7 expected goals tally against Volzhanin Kostroma's 1.9.
Volzhanin Kostroma have lost to Tyumen in five of the last six matches listed, including three consecutive 0:3 defeats at home in 2025. The most recent encounter on 7 March 2026 ended 3:0 to Tyumen in the Vysshaya Liga A.
Both sides have won three and lost two in their last five matches. Kostroma scored 11 goals while conceding 9; Tyumen managed 9 goals for and 7 against. In the Russian Cup this season, each team has played one match, won it, and sits on 3 points — Tyumen top of the table, Kostroma second.
The simulation expects 1.9 goals for Kostroma and 2.7 for Tyumen. It assigns 0% probability to a draw, 0% to both teams scoring, and 0% to three or more goals in total.
A draw suits Kostroma — if they defend deep and absorb pressure, the visitors may struggle to break down a packed defence. Tyumen's recent home form includes two losses to Tekstilshchik, exposing a leak at the back.