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CD Puerto Varas vs Puerto Montt: match prediction on 15 September 2026
CD Puerto Varas
Puerto Montt
Prediction for
Win: CD Puerto Varas
64%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
64%
1
36%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 13 Sep, 02:13- Пуэрто-Варас — 3. place, 0 points after 12 games (7 wins, 5 losses)
- Пуэрто-Монтт — 5. place, 0 points after 12 games (4 wins, 8 losses)
- Пуэрто-Варас, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Пуэрто-Монтт, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 12 games, Пуэрто-Варас — 9, Пуэрто-Монтт — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
CD Puerto Varas
WWWLL
3 wins · 2 losses
Puerto Montt
WWWWW
5 wins
Head to head 21
15CD Puerto Varas
0Draw
6Puerto Montt
- 17 SepPuerto Montt — CD Puerto Varas82:78
- 3 AugPuerto Montt — CD Puerto Varas80:59
- 14 JulCD Puerto Varas — Puerto Montt86:81
- 16 AprCD Puerto Varas — Puerto Montt86:85
- 25 MarPuerto Montt — CD Puerto Varas102:91
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 13 Sep, 02:13The model expects Puerto Varas to score 85.4 points and Puerto Montt 70.4. Hosts lead 4-1 in last six; Montt's five-game streak masks a 4-8 season record.
Home advantage matters
Puerto Varas sit third in the table with 7 wins from 12 matches. They beat Universidad Catolica 76-75 last week and Espanol Osorno 95-79 in August. Two losses in their last five came away from home against Valdivia and at home against Ancud, but the Ancud defeat was by just four points. Their average scoring at 67.4 points per game over ten matches is solid, and they allow the same — a balanced team that rarely blows out or gets blown out.
Puerto Montt's surprise run
Puerto Montt are flying at the moment. Five straight victories, including an 86-84 away win at Colo Colo and a 92-72 home win against Naviera Ulloa. They average 67.7 both ways. Their 4-8 record means they are still struggling overall, but they have found a rhythm that could trouble any side.
The history between them
Puerto Varas lead 4-2 in the last six meetings, but Puerto Montt's 80-59 victory on 3 August was emphatic. Before that, Puerto Varas won 86-81 at home in July and 86-85 in April. The pattern is clear: close games when Puerto Varas host, wider margins when Puerto Montt play at home.
What would break this
Basketball rarely ends in a draw, but if Montt's three-point shooting — 7.5 makes per game — stays hot and Puerto Varas cannot contain it, the model's 85.4 expectation for the hosts could be wrong.