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North West vs Dolphins: match prediction on 13 October 2026

CSA T20 Challenge Senwes Park Potchefstroom Miss Match page
North West Dolphins

Prediction for

Win: North West

61%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

61% 1
39% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 11 Oct, 17:05

North West to win. The home side has won two of three previous meetings between these teams, including a 272-138 victory in March, and the model's expected runs figure of 251.6 for North West versus 228.3 for Dolphins points to a home advantage. This changes if Dolphins can restrict North West to under 200 runs in their innings, which would flip the expected runs differential against the home side.

Dolphins sit top of the CSA T20 Challenge table with 15 points from four matches, three wins and one loss. North West occupy fifth place with 9 points from four matches, two wins and two losses. The six-point gap reflects Dolphins' consistency in this tournament format, though both sides have shown similar form in their last five matches across all competitions: three wins and two losses each.

The head-to-head record over the past year gives North West the edge. They won 272-138 in the Provincial One-Day Challenge on 14 March 2026, followed by a 335-274 victory in the 4-Day Series on 31 January 2026. Dolphins had the upper hand in their T20 Challenge meeting on 7 November 2025, winning 155-124. That single T20 result is the only one that matters for this fixture.

North West's recent results show vulnerability away from home. They lost 149-150 to South Western Districts on 10 October, beat Lions 207-205 on 2 October, lost 138-151 to Border on 28 September, and beat Warriors 131-128 on 25 September. Their only non-T20 result was a 642-596 victory over Boland in the 4-Day Series. Dolphins have beaten Border 129-128 on 9 October and Limpopo 95-91 on 4 October, before losing to Lions 194-202 on 27 September.

The model expects a decisive result with 0% probability of a draw and 0% for both teams to score. The expected runs figures suggest North West will outscore Dolphins by approximately 23 runs. This prediction requires Dolphins to bat second and face pressure in the final overs; if they set a target above 230 runs, North West's chase success rate drops significantly based on their recent away performances.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 11 Oct, 17:05
  • Нортвест — 5. place, 9 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 losses)
  • Долфинс — 1. place, 15 points after 4 games (3 wins, 1 losses)
  • Нортвест, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
  • Долфинс, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
  • Head-to-head: 3 games, Нортвест — 2, Долфинс — 1

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

North West WLWLL 2 wins · 3 losses
Dolphins LWWWW 4 wins · 1 loss

Head to head 3

2North West 0Draw 1Dolphins
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

No bookmaker data

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+