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Orlando City II vs Crown Legacy: match prediction on 31 August 2026

MLS Next Pro Osceola County Stadium Kissimmee Miss Match page
Orlando City II Crown Legacy

Prediction for

Win: Crown Legacy

43%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

36% 1
21% X
43% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:41

The gap in the table tells the story of this MLS Next Pro fixture. Crown Legacy sit 16 points clear at the summit with 51 from 24 matches, while Orlando City II trail in sixth with 35 after a season of 12 wins and 12 losses. The visitors have won 18 times already this campaign and lost only six, a record that makes them the side to beat.

Orlando City II are in freefall. Their last five matches have produced zero victories, zero draws and five defeats, yielding just three goals while conceding 15. They lost 1:5 away to Atlanta United II on 22 August, followed by 0:2 against Chicago FC United, then 0:3 at New York City II, 2:4 away to Connecticut Fc and 0:1 at home to Huntsville City. The run has left them without a point in what has been a disastrous spell.

Crown Legacy have been far more consistent. Their last five matches brought three wins, one draw and one defeat, earning 10 points with 10 goals scored and 6 conceded. They beat Chattanooga 3:1 at home on 23 August, lost 0:2 to Connecticut Fc, drew 2:2 away at Huntsville City, won 2:0 away to Fort Lauderdale CF and took a 3:1 victory away at Huntsville City on 2 August. The form gap between the sides is stark.

The history between them adds an edge. Across 10 meetings, Orlando City II have won four times, drawn four and lost twice to Crown Legacy. Recent encounters have been tighter — a 1:1 draw at Crown Legacy on 5 July, a 2:2 stalemate in Orlando on 3 May, and a 1:0 home win for Orlando City II last August. The pattern suggests these fixtures rarely produce clear-cut results, even when the table tells a different story.

Orlando City II are expected to score 1.8 goals and Crown Legacy 2.0, with a 21% chance of a draw and 72% that both teams find the net. The most probable scorelines are 1:1 at 8%, 1:2 at 8% and 2:1 at 7%. Three or more goals are expected in 72% of simulations. Crown Legacy's defensive record — 47% of goals conceded in the final 15 minutes — could work against them if Orlando City II, who score 54% of their goals in the same period, find a late surge.

Crown Legacy win holds at 65% confidence only if they avoid their disciplinary vulnerabilities. D. Longo picked up a red card on 19 August, Assane Ouédraogo has two red cards on record and N. Richmond carries five yellow cards. A suspension or caution accumulation could weaken their back line. A draw would also undermine the prediction, particularly given Orlando City II's tendency to score late and Crown Legacy's habit of conceding in the final quarter.

Outcome: Crown Legacy win

Confidence: 65%

Reasoning

Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:41
  • Орландо Сити II — 6. place, 35 points after 24 games (12 wins, 12 losses)
  • Краун Леджэки — 1. place, 51 points after 24 games (18 wins, 6 losses)
  • Орландо Сити II, last 5 games: 0 wins, 5 losses
  • Краун Леджэки, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
  • Head-to-head: 10 games, Орландо Сити II — 4, 4 draws, Краун Леджэки — 2

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Orlando City II LLLWW 2 wins · 3 losses
Crown Legacy DLWLW 2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses

Head to head 10

4Orlando City II 4Draw 2Crown Legacy
All head-to-head

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