Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Toluca vs FC Juarez: match prediction on 31 August 2026
Toluca
FC Juarez
Prediction for
Win: Toluca
72%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
72%
1
16%
X
12%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:00- Толука — 4. place, 10 points after 5 games (3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses)
- Хуарес — 18. place, 0 points after 5 games (0 wins, 5 losses)
- Толука, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Хуарес, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 10 games, Толука — 6, 3 draws, Хуарес — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Toluca
WWWWW
5 wins
FC Juarez
LLLLL
5 losses
Head to head 16
7Toluca
4Draw
5FC Juarez
- 8 MarToluca — FC Juarez3:1
- 30 Nov 2025Toluca — FC Juarez0:0
- 27 Nov 2025FC Juarez — Toluca1:2
- 12 Aug 2025FC Juarez — Toluca0:2
- 22 Feb 2025FC Juarez — Toluca0:4
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 11:00Toluca win. The gap in form and the model's expected goals—2.6 for Toluca against 0.9 for FC Juarez—point to a comfortable home victory, and the visitors' inability to take points at this stage of the season makes that the most logical outcome. I'll put the confidence at 65%.
Form
Toluca sit fifth with 10 points from five matches, having won three, drawn once and lost once. They have scored seven goals and conceded just three. Their last outing was a 2:0 victory over Austin at home in the Leagues Cup, and before that they beat Querétaro 2:1 away. The only blemish was a 0:1 loss to Los Angeles FC at home.
FC Juarez have collected zero points from five matches. They have lost every game they have played this season, conceding 13 goals while scoring seven. Their most recent result was a 1:2 defeat to Club América at home, and before that they lost 6:1 to Monterrey away. They have won two of their five matches in all competitions this year, both in the Leagues Cup against Vancouver Whitecaps and Minnesota United.
Head-to-head
In the most recent encounter on 8 March 2026, Toluca won 3:1 at home. Before that they drew 0:0 at home in November 2025, then won 2:1 away in November 2025, 2:0 away in August 2025 and 4:0 away in February 2025.
Timing
Toluca score 26% of their goals in the final 15 minutes and 21% in the first half, while conceding 36% in the closing period and 23% in the 46-60 minute window. They also concede heavily early, with 17% of goals against them in each of the first two 15-minute blocks.
Model
The model expects Toluca to score 2.6 goals and FC Juarez 0.9. The draw probability is 16%, with 56% for both teams to score and 68% for three or more goals in the match. The three most likely scorelines are 2:0 at 10%, 2:1 at 9% and 3:0 at 8%.
When it breaks
A draw suits FC Juarez because they can absorb pressure and run the clock down, and that is the main threat. If they hold out for a point in the first 60 minutes and then sit deep, the match could slip into extra time or a penalty shootout.