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Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogoń Szczecin: match prediction on 29 August 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
Pogoń Szczecin
Prediction for
Win: Zaglebie Lubin
45%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
37%
1
28%
X
35%
2
Average bookmaker line (47)
2.52
1
3.25
X
2.64
2
Odds range
2.40 — 2.63
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 23:09- Заглембе Лубин — 6. place, 7 points after 4 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses)
- Погонь Щецин — 5. place, 7 points after 4 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses)
- Заглембе Лубин, last 5 games: 3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses
- Погонь Щецин, last 5 games: 2 wins, 1 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 9 games, Заглембе Лубин — 3, 1 draws, Погонь Щецин — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Zaglebie Lubin
WDDLD
1 win · 3 draws · 1 loss
Pogoń Szczecin
WDDLD
1 win · 3 draws · 1 loss
Head to head 15
4Zaglebie Lubin
2Draw
9Pogoń Szczecin
- 4 JulZaglebie Lubin — Pogoń Szczecin2:0
- 15 MayZaglebie Lubin — Pogoń Szczecin0:1
- 24 Nov 2025Pogoń Szczecin — Zaglebie Lubin5:1
- 1 Feb 2025Pogoń Szczecin — Zaglebie Lubin1:0
- 4 Dec 2024Pogoń Szczecin — Zaglebie Lubin4:3
Bookmaker market
47
bookmakers counted
2.52
Average bookmaker line
2.40 — 2.63
Odds range
More predictions
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 23:09Zaglebie at home with the edge
I am backing Zaglebie Lubin to win against Pogoń Szczecin on 29 August, confidence 45%. The number comes from the service's own assessment, and the reasoning is straightforward: Zaglebie have been more consistent in their results and they play at home where they have already beaten Pogoń twice in 2026. The model puts Zaglebie at 1.4 expected goals to Pogoń's 1.0, which fits the pattern of a tight match decided by a single goal.
Zaglebie's last five games show three wins, one draw and one loss — 10 points from 15 available. They beat Śląsk Wrocław 2:1 at home, won 2:0 against Piast Gliwice on home soil, and took a 3:0 victory over Chrobry Głogów in a friendly. Their only defeat was 1:3 away to Legia Warszawa. Pogoń have managed two wins, one draw and two losses for 7 points, including a 2:2 draw with Wisła Kraków and a 3:1 win over Motor Lublin, but they also lost 0:1 to Legia and 0:1 to Sturm Graz in a friendly. The gap in results is clear.
Head-to-head history gives Pogoń the advantage overall — five wins to Zaglebie's three in nine meetings — but the recent picture is different. Zaglebie won the friendly on 4 July 2026 by 2:0 and lost the league encounter on 15 May 2026 by 0:1. Those two results cancel each other out in terms of momentum. Zaglebie have scored 8 goals in their last five matches while conceding only 4, whereas Pogoń have scored 7 and conceded 5. The defensive record is slightly better for the hosts.
When Zaglebie score, they do it at both ends of the match — 27% of their goals come in the first 15 minutes and another 27% in the final 15. They are quiet in the middle period between 31 and 45 minutes. Pogoń have a different pattern: 28% of their goals arrive in the 31-45 minute window and again 28% after the 75th minute. If this match stays level at half-time, Pogoń will look to take control in the second half, but Zaglebie's ability to score in the opening phase could set the tone.
The model's most likely scores are 1:0 and 1:1, both at 13%, followed by 0:0 at 9%. A draw is possible — the probability sits at 27% — and 47% of matches see both teams score. A red card or an early injury would change the dynamics, but neither team has reported any absences.