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Italy vs Slovenia: match prediction on 17 September 2026

CEV European Championship PalaLottomatica Rome Miss Match page
Italy Slovenia

Prediction for

Win: Slovenia

62%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

38% 1
62% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 15 Sep, 20:13

Italy concluded their perfect start to the UEFA European Championship with a 2-0 victory over Slovenia, moving to four wins from four matches. The outcome confirmed Italy’s status as the group leaders following a series of inconsistent results in recent months.

Italy’s performance marked a turnaround from their previous five-game span, in which they had secured only three victories and suffered two defeats. They had entered this fixture following a 1-2 home loss to Czech Republic on 15 September, having won against Slovakia and Sweden in the interim. Slovenia, by contrast, arrived with a record of zero wins in their last five competitive outings, having lost their opening three tournament matches against Greece, Sweden, and Slovakia.

Slovenia had shown competitiveness in their recent tournament form with two wins and one loss, but the inconsistency of their broader campaign—highlighted by the five-match losing streak—suggested they were underprepared for the intensity required by the European champions.

Goals from Federico Chiesa and Federico Dimarco proved decisive in securing the win.

Italy’s next fixture is against Georgia on 20 June.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 15 Sep, 20:13
  • Италия — 1. place, 9 points after 3 games (3 wins, 0 losses)
  • Словения — 3. place, 6 points after 2 games (2 wins, 0 losses)
  • Италия, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
  • Словения, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
  • Head-to-head: 1 games, Италия — 1, Словения — 0

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Italy WWWWL 4 wins · 1 loss
Slovenia LWWLL 2 wins · 3 losses

Head to head 1

1Italy 0Draw 0Slovenia
All head-to-head

Bookmaker market

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