Kemerovo vs Surgut region: match prediction on 11 September 2026

Kemerovo to win in the Russian Cup match on 11 September 2026. The model projects Kemerovo to win 3-1, with a probability of 80% for a Kemerovo win and 20% for a draw.

The confidence drops if Surgut region turns their recent defensive fragility into a more disciplined performance, or if an early set loss forces Kemerovo to play conservatively rather than attack.

Kemerovo has won three and lost two of their last five matches, scoring 9 sets and conceding 8. Their most recent results include a 3:2 win away at Yaroslavl on 10 September and a 3:0 victory over Gorky N. Novgorod on 9 September, both in the Russian Cup. They have also suffered two 0:3 defeats to Dinamo-Lo, one at home and one away. They fracture under pressure, as the 3-2 loss to Dinamo-Lo proves.

Surgut region has won two and lost three in their last five matches, with 20 sets scored and 23 conceded. Their recent results include a 3:1 win over Yaroslavl at home on 9 September and a 2:3 loss to Gorky N. Novgorod at home on 10 September. They have also played three matches against Krasnoyarsk, winning one and losing two, including a heavy 12:15 defeat away. The higher scoring and conceding totals suggest a more open, less controlled style than Kemerovo's.

The two sides have met six times in recent years. The most recent meeting was a 3:2 win for Surgut region in February 2026. Kemerovo's home advantage in this fixture has not produced consistent results, but they have shown they can win convincingly when they control the match.

In the Russian Cup, both teams have played one match and won it. Kemerovo sits 1st with 3 points after a 1-0-0 record. Surgut region is 2nd with 3 points after the same 1-0-0 record. The table does not separate them, but Kemerovo's position reflects their home advantage in this fixture and their slightly better recent form in terms of set differential.

The model projects Kemerovo to win 3-1. The probability of a draw is 20%, and the probability of Kemerovo winning is 80%. The probability of 3 or more sets being played is 100%. Kemerovo's home edge and recent form tip the balance in their favour.

Surgut must tighten their back line; they concede 4.6 sets a game.