Serbia vs Denmark: match prediction on 16 September 2026

Serbia will win. The model expects 5.2 to 0.6 and the recent form backs that: Serbia have won three of their last five matches while Denmark have taken only one, and the gap between them has widened since the tournament began.

They beat Netherlands 3:2 at home on 14 September and followed that with losses to Finland and Estonia away from home. Before the championship they took victories over Algeria and Portugal in the Mediterranean Games, scoring 10 goals and conceding 10 in the period.

The standout result was a 3:0 away win against Estonia on 13 September, but they have lost to Belgium, Netherlands and Finland since then, with a defeat to Finland in the European League on 1 July. They have scored five goals and conceded 12.

Denmark sit first with 10 points from four matches, three wins and one loss. Serbia are fourth with five points from three matches, two wins and one defeat. The Danish side's earlier form kept them at the summit, but their recent slide has narrowed the gap in performance even if the points remain separate.

Model: Serbia 5.2, Denmark 0.6, Draw 0. The figures suggest Serbia will control the match from start to finish, with Denmark struggling to create anything meaningful. BTTS is priced at zero.

A draw would suit the visitors given how they run the clock down, and that is the main threat. If Denmark find a way to frustrate Serbia and drag it out, the model's confidence evaporates. The prediction also stops holding if Serbia suffer an early setback that forces them to chase the game.

Confidence sits at 70%.