Ancud vs CD Puerto Varas: match prediction on 29 September 2026

Ancud are the clear favourites here, and the data supports a narrow home victory. The model expects them to outscore CD Puerto Varas 80.5 to 77.7, and the head-to-head record over six matches shows Ancud winning four of those encounters.

Ancud sit in sixth place with four wins and eight losses from twelve matches, while CD Puerto Varas occupy third with seven victories and five defeats. The gap between them at the top of the table is small, but Ancud have been the dominant force in this fixture historically. Across 31 meetings they have won 20 times compared to Puerto Varas's 11, and in the last six matches the pattern is 4-2 in Ancud's favour.

The recent head-to-head scores tell the story. Ancud won 90-84 at home on 19 July, then lost 74-75 away on 12 May before winning 76-66 at home on 10 May. They followed that with a 69-64 away victory on 8 May and a 101-78 home win on 26 April. The most recent meeting came on 8 August when Puerto Varas lost 82-86 at home. Ancud have won four of the last six and are undefeated at home against their opponents this season.

Both sides arrive with identical recent form—two wins and three losses from their last five matches. Ancud's home record shows wins against Espanol Osorno (74-65) and Naviera Ulloa (82-71), with losses to Puerto Montt twice (83-94 and 66-88) and Valdivia (76-89). Puerto Varas have won away to Universidad Catolica (83-62) and at home against Universidad Católica (76-75), but lost away to Universidad de Concepcion (76-96) and Puerto Montt (78-82), and at home to Puerto Montt (68-81).

The model's point expectations suggest a tight contest. Ancud 80.5, Puerto Varas 77.7—that is a three-point margin, the kind of result that comes down to late execution. The team statistics show Ancud shooting 46.1 per cent from the field and 38.8 per cent from three-point range, while Puerto Varas manage 40.3 and 31.2 respectively. Puerto Varas have a slight edge in rebounds but struggle with efficiency.

This prediction holds only if Ancud maintain their home-court advantage and shoot at their season average. A poor shooting night from any team would derail the model's expectation, as would an unusually high-scoring game that pushes both sides well past 85 points. The margin is too small for anything other than a late-game decision.