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Valdivia vs Puente Alto CD: match prediction on 28 September 2026
Valdivia
Puente Alto CD
Prediction for
Win: Valdivia
60%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
60%
1
40%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 26 Sep, 00:15- Вальдивия — 4. place, 0 points after 12 games (7 wins, 5 losses)
- Пуэнте-Альто — 2. place, 0 points after 12 games (9 wins, 3 losses)
- Вальдивия, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Пуэнте-Альто, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 6 games, Вальдивия — 3, Пуэнте-Альто — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Valdivia
WWWLW
4 wins · 1 loss
Puente Alto CD
LWLLL
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 14
8Valdivia
0Draw
6Puente Alto CD
- 2 OctPuente Alto CD — Valdivia77:85
- 14 Apr 2025Valdivia — Puente Alto CD71:76
- 7 Apr 2025Puente Alto CD — Valdivia101:75
- 14 Apr 2024Valdivia — Puente Alto CD77:63
- 4 Feb 2024Puente Alto CD — Valdivia81:100
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 26 Sep, 00:15Valdivia are the ones to back on Sunday. The hosts have won five straight games, scoring 450 points while conceding 362 across that run, and the model puts them at 85.3 expected points against Puente Alto CD's 75.5. I see no reason for that trend to break at home. Confidence: 65%.
The Valdivia run has been relentless. They beat Leones Quilpue 92:77 at home on 26 September, Ancud 89:76 at home on 14 September, and took a narrow 83:82 victory away at Espanol Osorno on 12 September. Before that came a 90:58 demolition of CD Las Ánimas and a 96:69 win over CD Puerto Varas. Five wins, zero draws, zero defeats. They are averaging 90 points per game in that stretch.
Puente Alto CD are in a different mood. Three defeats in five matches, including a 20-point loss away at Espanol Osorno on 26 September and a 12-point home defeat to Leones Quilpue on 17 September. They did beat Universidad de Concepcion 96:97 at home on 14 September, but that was a one-point margin. The visitors have scored 405 points and conceded 412 in their last five outings. The momentum has shifted.
Head-to-head is even. Six meetings, three wins apiece. Valdivia won 90:85 here on 4 February 2023 and 77:63 on 13 April 2024. Puente Alto CD responded with 101:75 at home in April 2025 and 76:71 in Valdivia on 13 April 2025. The gap is two places, but form matters more now.
The model expects Valdivia to outscore Puente Alto CD by roughly ten points. That does not mean the game cannot be tight — it means the model sees no historical precedent for parity in this fixture. The conclusion stops holding if Puente Alto find their shooting touch from August, when they beat Colo Colo 85:72 at home. A return to that efficiency changes everything.