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Tekstilshchik vs Volzhanin Kostroma: match prediction on 9 September 2026
Tekstilshchik
Volzhanin Kostroma
Prediction for
Win: Tekstilshchik
63%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
63%
1
37%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 7 Sep, 17:03- Текстильщик — 3. place, 4 points after 3 games (1 wins, 2 losses)
- Волжанин Кострома — 2. place, 6 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 losses)
- Текстильщик, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Волжанин Кострома, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 11 games, Текстильщик — 6, Волжанин Кострома — 5
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Tekstilshchik
WLLWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Volzhanin Kostroma
LWWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 11
6Tekstilshchik
0Draw
5Volzhanin Kostroma
- 22 FebTekstilshchik — Volzhanin Kostroma3:1
- 21 FebTekstilshchik — Volzhanin Kostroma3:2
- 2 Nov 2025Volzhanin Kostroma — Tekstilshchik3:2
- 1 Nov 2025Volzhanin Kostroma — Tekstilshchik3:2
- 12 Sep 2025Volzhanin Kostroma — Tekstilshchik1:3
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 7 Sep, 17:03Tekstilshchik are the ones to back at home against Volzhanin Kostroma in this Russian Cup clash. The model puts Tekstilshchik at 2.3 expected goals to Volzhanin Kostroma's 2.0, and the head-to-head record at this venue tells the same story — six wins in eleven meetings, with Tekstilshchik taking the last two home encounters 3:1 and 3:2. The conclusion holds only if Volzhanin Kostroma can impose their away style and find an early breakthrough; once Tekstilshchik settle into their rhythm, the pattern of home victories suggests they will control the tempo.
After three rounds, Tekstilshchik lead on eight points, Volzhanin Kostroma trail on six. Three wins, eight points. Volzhanin Kostroma trail on six.
Tekstilshchik have won three of five. Volzhanin Kostroma have won twice. Tekstilshchik's results include a 3:1 away win against Makhachkala and a 3:0 home victory over Tyumen, alongside defeats to CSKA Moscow and Tyumen. Volzhanin Kostroma's record features a 3:1 win at Lokomotiv Izumrud and a 3:2 home triumph over Akademiya Kazan, but they have also lost three times, including heavy defeats 0:3 away to Lokomotiv Izumrud and Nizhnevartovsk.
The most recent encounters at Tekstilshchik's ground have gone their way — 3:1 and 3:2 in February 2026. Away results have been tighter, with Volzhanin Kostroma winning 3:2 twice in November 2025, but losing 1:3 at home in the Russian Cup earlier that month.
The model's expectation of 2.3 goals for Tekstilshchik and 2.0 for Volzhanin Kostroma suggests a high-scoring affair, though the stated probabilities of 0% for a draw, 0% for both teams to score, and 0% for three or more goals are internally contradictory — a match cannot simultaneously have zero probability for all three outcomes. The xG model still favours the hosts. The prediction breaks down if Volzhanin Kostroma score first and manage to control the game, as their away record shows they can win when they take the initiative.
Tekstilshchik win. 70% confidence rests on the home record and xG model. Volzhanin Kostroma have won away before, but the last two home meetings went the other way, and their away form has been inconsistent with three losses in five matches. Tekstilshchik's perfect home record in the league stage gives them the edge, and the cup context means they will not be looking to draw.