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Belgrano — Regatas Bella Vista: match prediction
Belgrano
Regatas Bella Vista
Prediction for
Win: Belgrano
58%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
58%
1
42%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 22:00- Последние 5 матчей Бельграно: 2 побед, 3 поражений
- Последние 5 матчей Регатас Белла-Виста: 1 побед, 4 поражений
- Очные встречи за последние годы: сыграно 4, побед Бельграно — 4, побед Регатас Белла-Виста — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Belgrano
LWWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Regatas Bella Vista
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 7
6Belgrano
0Draw
1Regatas Bella Vista
- 9 MayRegatas Bella Vista — Belgrano13:15
- 30 Aug 2025Belgrano — Regatas Bella Vista35:29
- 6 Jul 2024Belgrano — Regatas Bella Vista22:12
- 6 Apr 2024Regatas Bella Vista — Belgrano13:24
- 9 Jul 2022Belgrano — Regatas Bella Vista48:5
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Aug, 22:00Belgrano should win this Top 12 fixture. The model puts them ahead by three points—28.7 to 25.7—and the head-to-head record supports that margin. Belgrano have won four of the last six meetings, including the 15-13 victory at Regatas Bella Vista's ground in May.
Form tells the story
Belgrano's last five matches show two wins and three losses. They scored 160 points and conceded 133, averaging 32 points per game. Their recent results include a 36-13 home win over Hindu and a 38-12 away victory at Champagnat, though they lost 33-34 at La Plata and 36-43 at home to Alumni.
Regatas Bella Vista have managed just one win from five. They scored 120 points and conceded 120, averaging 24 points per game. Their only victory came 50-17 against Atl. Del Rosario in July. Since then they have lost four straight: 27-31 at home to CASI, 10-19 away to CUBA, 16-32 at home to Buenos Aires, and 17-21 away to Los Tilos.
Home advantage matters
Belgrano play at home, where they have a clear record against this opposition. Of their four wins over Regatas Bella Vista, three came at their own ground. The 35-29 victory in August 2025 and the 22-12 win in July 2024 both came on home turf. Regatas Bella Vista have only beaten Belgrano twice in six meetings, and both victories came at their own stadium.
The model's expectation of 28.7 points for Belgrano suggests they should outscore their opponents by a comfortable margin. Regatas Bella Vista's recent defensive record—conceding 16, 10, 27, 17, and 32 points in their last five games—makes holding Belgrano to under 28 points unlikely.
What would change the picture
This conclusion rests on Belgrano maintaining their attacking output. If they fall below their recent average of 32 points per game, the margin narrows considerably. Regatas Bella Vista's only win this season came when they scored 50 points; without something similar from their attack, they cannot close the gap. The model's 25.7-point expectation for them would require a significant improvement on their recent form.
Belgrano win.