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Belgium vs Slovenia: match prediction on 23 September 2026

CEV European Championship Sportcity Charleroi / Sportpaleis Antwerp / Lotto Arena Antwerp Genk Hit Match page
Belgium Slovenia

Prediction for

Win: Slovenia

73%

probability

Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model

27% 1
73% 2

Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off

Prediction commentary

Based on data as of 22 Sep, 08:22

Belgium win. The hosts lead the table with a perfect record and face a Slovenian side that has dropped points away from home. The model expects Belgium to edge the match, and the data supports that view.

Belgium have won all five matches so far. They scored 14 points across those games and conceded just 6. Belgium’s only slip was a 2-3 away loss to Finland; they’ve won their last four matches: 3-1 at home against Czech Republic, 3-0 away to Serbia, 3-1 at home against Denmark, and 3-1 away to Estonia. That run shows consistency in winning sets 3-1 or 3-0.

Slovenia sit second with 10 points from five matches. They have three wins and two losses. Their most recent result was a 3:0 home victory over Serbia on 21 September. Before that they lost 2:3 away to Italy on 17 September, won 3:1 at home against Czech Republic on 16 September, lost 1:3 at home to Greece on 14 September, and won 3:0 away to Sweden on 13 September. They have scored 12 points and conceded 7 in their last five matches.

Belgium top the table with 12 points from five matches. Slovenia are second with 10 points from five matches. Belgium have not lost a single game this campaign. The gap between them is two points with Belgium having played one fewer match.

The model expects Belgium to score 1.6 points and Slovenia to score 2.2 points. These figures suggest Slovenia are expected to score more, but the match outcome still favours Belgium.

A draw would change this conclusion. Slovenia have shown they can compete at home, and if they take an early lead they could control the tempo.

Reasoning

Based on data as of 22 Sep, 08:22
  • Бельгия — 1. place, 12 points after 4 games (4 wins, 0 losses)
  • Словения — 2. place, 10 points after 5 games (3 wins, 2 losses)
  • Бельгия, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
  • Словения, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses

Key factors

Form last 5 matches

Belgium WWWWL 4 wins · 1 loss
Slovenia LWWLL 2 wins · 3 losses

Bookmaker market

No bookmaker data

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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+