Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Chelyabinsk vs Lokomotiv Izumrud: match prediction on 11 September 2026
Chelyabinsk
Lokomotiv Izumrud
Prediction for
Win: Lokomotiv Izumrud
79%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
21%
1
79%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 12:12- Челябинск — 4. place, 1 points after 3 games (0 wins, 3 losses)
- Локомотив Изумруд — 4. place, 1 points after 3 games (0 wins, 3 losses)
- Челябинск, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Локомотив Изумруд, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 22 games, Челябинск — 5, Локомотив Изумруд — 17
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Chelyabinsk
LLWLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Lokomotiv Izumrud
LLWWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 31
7Chelyabinsk
0Draw
24Lokomotiv Izumrud
- 8 MarChelyabinsk — Lokomotiv Izumrud2:3
- 7 MarChelyabinsk — Lokomotiv Izumrud3:0
- 15 Nov 2025Lokomotiv Izumrud — Chelyabinsk3:0
- 14 Nov 2025Lokomotiv Izumrud — Chelyabinsk3:0
- 24 Sep 2025Lokomotiv Izumrud — Chelyabinsk3:2
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 9 Sep, 12:12Lokomotiv Izumrud are the clear favourites for this Russian Cup fixture. The visitors have won 17 of the 22 meetings between these sides, and the model expects them to score 2.6 goals to Chelyabinsk's 1.7. That gap in expected output is decisive.
Lokomotiv Izumrud win. The only scenario where this falls apart is a draw — and given how the visitors run the clock down, that is the main threat.
Chelyabinsk sit top of the table with three points from one match, but they have lost all three of their other games this season. Their recent five carries two wins and three defeats, with eight goals scored and twelve conceded. They beat Barnaul 3:1 away in the Cup on 9 September, but that was followed by a 3:0 loss to CSKA Moscow at home and another 0:3 defeat away at Kama. They find the net but leave the back door open. Lokomotiv Izumrud occupy second place with two points from one match. Their last five contain three wins and two losses, eleven goals for and eight against. They won 3:0 against Barnaul at home on 10 September and 3:2 against Stroitel Minsk on 9 September, both in the Russian Cup. Those victories came after losses away at Nizhnevartovsk and at home to Volzhanin Kostroma, but the recent trend in Cup matches is positive.
The head-to-head record is stark. Lokomotiv Izumrud have won 17 of 22 meetings, Chelyabinsk five. In the most recent six encounters, Lokomotiv Izumrud won four, Chelyabinsk two. The last meeting on 8 March 2026 ended 2:3 to the visitors in the Vysshaya Liga A. The two matches on 14 and 15 November 2025 were both 3:0 victories for Lokomotiv Izumrud at home.
The model rules out a draw and over 3.5 goals, pointing to 2:0 or 2:1. They do not account for injuries or suspensions, but none have been reported for either side. The expectation is a narrow victory for Lokomotiv Izumrud, likely 2:1 or 2:0.
If Lokomotiv Izumrud take an early lead and manage the game, Chelyabinsk will struggle to find a response. Their defence has conceded 12 goals in five matches, and Lokomotiv Izumrud have scored 11 in the same span.