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Anilana Lodz
KS Warszawianka
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80%
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Slovenia vs Poland: match prediction on 25 September 2026
Slovenia
Poland
Prediction for
Win: Poland
56%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
44%
1
56%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 24 Sep, 08:43- Словения — 2. place, 10 points after 5 games (3 wins, 2 losses)
- Польша — 1. place, 13 points after 5 games (4 wins, 1 losses)
- Словения, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Польша, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Head-to-head: 10 games, Словения — 3, Польша — 7
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Slovenia
LWWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Poland
LWWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 14
5Slovenia
0Draw
9Poland
- 28 AugPoland — Slovenia3:2
- 1 AugSlovenia — Poland0:3
- 11 JunSlovenia — Poland3:2
- 5 Aug 2024Slovenia — Poland1:3
- 14 Jul 2024Poland — Slovenia3:1
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 24 Sep, 08:43Poland to win. Confidence 68%.
The visitors have dominated this pairing for years. In six meetings since June 2024 Poland won four, Slovenia two. The most recent fixture on 28 August ended 3:2 to Poland at the Hubert Wagner Memorial. Before that, Slovenia lost 0:3 to Poland in the Nations League on 1 August. The pattern is clear.
Slovenia sit second with 10 points from five matches — three wins, two losses. Their last five results read 3:1 away at Belgium, 3:0 home against Serbia, 2:3 loss to Italy, 3:1 home win over Czech Republic, then 1:3 at home to Greece. They have scored 12 sets and conceded eight. The two defeats came against Italy and Greece, both top-tier opposition.
Poland lead the table with 13 points, four victories and one defeat. Their last five matches produced 3:0 home wins against Germany and Latvia, a 2:3 away loss to Bulgaria, 3:0 home victory over Ukraine, and 3:0 away triumph versus North Macedonia. They have scored 14 sets and conceded just three. The single loss came against Bulgaria in a tight contest.
The head-to-head record does not favour the hosts. Poland have won four of the last six encounters, including three straight victories. Slovenia's last win in this fixture came on 11 June 2026, 3:2 at home. Since then Poland have won every meeting. The visitors carry momentum from that dominance into the semifinal.
The model expects Slovenia to win 1.7 sets and Poland 1.8 on average across many simulations. The draw probability sits at 0%, both teams to win at least one set at 0%, and three or more sets at 0%. The figures point to a tight contest decided by a narrow margin.
This conclusion stops holding if Slovenia secure an early lead. They have shown they can beat strong opponents — Belgium and Serbia both fell at their hands. An opening set victory would shift the psychological advantage, and Poland's recent record shows they have occasionally struggled when behind. The model does not account for such momentum swings.
A draw suits neither side in a semifinal. The match will go to a deciding set, and the team that closes stronger will take it. Poland have done that more often against Slovenia, but Slovenia remain dangerous at home.
The semifinal demands focus from both. Slovenia need to avoid the mistakes that cost them against Italy and Greece. Poland must not relax after their dominant run. One slip could change everything.
Poland to win. Confidence 68%.
The visitors have dominated this pairing for years. In six meetings since June 2024 Poland won four, Slovenia two. The most recent fixture on 28 August ended 3:2 to Poland at the Hubert Wagner Memorial. Before that, Slovenia lost 0:3 to Poland in the Nations League on 1 August. The pattern is clear.
Slovenia sit second with 10 points from five matches — three wins, two losses. Their last five results read 3:1 away at Belgium, 3:0 home against Serbia, 2:3 loss to Italy, 3:1 home win over Czech Republic, then 1:3 at home to Greece. They have scored 12 sets and conceded eight. The two defeats came against Italy and Greece, both top-tier opposition.
Poland lead the table with 13 points, four victories and one defeat. Their last five matches produced 3:0 home wins against Germany and Latvia, a 2:3 away loss to Bulgaria, 3:0 home victory over Ukraine, and 3:0 away triumph versus North Macedonia. They have scored 14 sets and conceded just three. The single loss came against Bulgaria in a tight contest.
The head-to-head record does not favour the hosts. Poland have won four of the last six encounters, including three straight victories. Slovenia's last win in this fixture came on 11 June 2026, 3:2 at home. Since then Poland have won every meeting. The visitors carry momentum from that dominance into the semifinal.
The model expects Slovenia to win 1.7 sets and Poland 1.8 on average across many simulations. The draw probability sits at 0%, both teams to win at least one set at 0%, and three or more sets at 0%. The figures point to a tight contest decided by a narrow margin.
This conclusion stops holding if Slovenia secure an early lead. They have shown they can beat strong opponents — Belgium and Serbia both fell at their hands. An opening set victory would shift the psychological advantage, and Poland's recent record shows they have occasionally struggled when behind. The model does not account for such momentum swings.
A draw suits neither side in a semifinal. The match will go to a deciding set, and the team that closes stronger will take it. Poland have done that more often against Slovenia, but Slovenia remain dangerous at home.
The semifinal demands focus from both. Slovenia need to avoid the mistakes that cost them against Italy and Greece. Poland must not relax after their dominant run. One slip could change everything.