Jämtland Basket — Boras Basket: 92:99, Basketligan

Borås Basket secured a 99-92 victory away at Jämtland Basket in the Swedish Basketball League on Tuesday evening. The fourth-placed visitors overcame the league leaders at their own arena, extending the history between two sides that have seen plenty of close encounters this season.

And here's the thing — you'd have expected the hosts to run away with it. They've won 22 of their 30 games and sat top of the table with momentum on their side. Instead, Borås ground out the win despite losing their previous meeting 92-78 in April. The away side worked the channels when it mattered, finding space that Jämtland's defence couldn't quite close down.

The statistics tell the story of a game decided at the edges. Borås hit 13 three-pointers to Jämtland's 10, but it was the free-throw shooting that separated them — 22 from 32 compared to 14 from 18. The visitors also claimed 13 offensive rebounds against seven, giving them second chances that eventually told. Jämtland had more assists and more steals, but those extra possessions didn't materialise into points when the game was tight.

By then, the gap in the table had shifted on its axis. Jämtland remain top with 22 victories, but the confidence of a home win has now been snatched away. Borås sit fourth with 21 wins, and while the standings don't show a dramatic change, the result cuts into the hosts' cushion at the summit.

Our prediction backed the home side at 52 per cent confidence, and we were wrong. The match didn't break our way because Boràs found a rhythm they hadn't shown in recent outings — eight losses in 30 games, yet they rolled the dice and held their nerve. The clean-sheet run of expectation came to an end, and now the leaders have to respond.