Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo: match prediction on 30 August 2026
Santamarina
Circulo Deportivo
Prediction for
Win: Santamarina
42%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
41%
1
33%
X
25%
2
Average bookmaker line (36)
2.20
1
2.72
X
3.57
2
Odds range
1.90 — 2.30
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:41- Сантамарина — 10. place, 3 points after 5 games (1 wins, 4 losses)
- Сиркуло Депортиво — 8. place, 5 points after 5 games (1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses)
- Сантамарина, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Сиркуло Депортиво, last 5 games: 1 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 11 games, Сантамарина — 7, 2 draws, Сиркуло Депортиво — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Santamarina
LWLWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Circulo Deportivo
DDLLW
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Head to head 11
7Santamarina
2Draw
2Circulo Deportivo
- 14 JunCirculo Deportivo — Santamarina0:0
- 11 AprSantamarina — Circulo Deportivo4:0
- 26 Jul 2025Circulo Deportivo — Santamarina1:0
- 24 May 2025Santamarina — Circulo Deportivo2:0
- 19 Mar 2025Circulo Deportivo — Santamarina2:2
Bookmaker market
36
bookmakers counted
2.20
Average bookmaker line
1.90 — 2.30
Odds range
More predictions
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:41I see a draw as the most likely outcome here, with 65% confidence. The data points toward a tight, low-scoring affair rather than either side breaking down. Circulo Deportivo's recent habit of grinding out results matches Santamarina's inability to find the net consistently enough to suggest a stalemate.
Santamarina have won just once in five matches, losing four of those games. Their only victory came 2:0 at home against Fundacion Amigos on 17 August, but that was followed by defeats including a 1:5 hammering away at Germinal de Rawson. They have scored three goals and conceded eight across those five fixtures, and the pattern shows they are not finding the back of the net. Their goals arrive mostly late—25% come in the final 15 minutes—but that has not translated into results.
Circulo Deportivo sit two points better off in eighth place, and their form tells a different story. They have drawn two of their last five matches, including back-to-back 0:0 results away at Juventud Unida Univ. and Deportivo Rincón on 16 and 12 August. They have scored just one goal in that period but have kept their defensive shape better than Santamarina. Their goals cluster in the 16-30 minute window at 33%, which suggests they start more sharply than their opponents.
The head-to-head record favours Santamarina heavily—seven wins in 11 meetings—but the recent encounters tell a tighter story. The last meeting on 14 June ended 0:0 at Circulo Deportivo's ground, and before that Santamarina won 4:0 at home in April. The model expects Santamarina to score 0.9 goals and Circulo Deportivo 0.6, with a 36% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0:0 at 22%, followed by 1:0 at 21%.
This conclusion stops holding if Santamarina convert their late-game dominance into actual goals. They concede 35% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, and if they push forward to chase a result while leaving space behind, Circulo Deportivo could capitalise on their earlier attacking window. A draw currently suits both sides—neither team has much to lose in the table, and neither has the firepower to guarantee a win.
Confidence: 65%