Novyi Urengoy vs Chelyabinsk: match prediction on 8 October 2026

Novyi Urengoy to win.

Novyi Urengoy have collected 13 points from 6 matches, winning 5 and losing once. Their last five games produced four victories and one defeat, with 12 goals scored and 7 conceded. They beat Orenburg 3:0 away on 24 September, then saw off Ufa 3:2 at home the following day. A 3:2 win over MGTU Moscow came on 22 September, before they matched the earlier Orenburg result with another 3:0 victory away on 11 September. Their only loss came at home to Ufa, 0:3 on 10 September.

Chelyabinsk sit on 9 points from 3 matches, having won all three without a single loss. Their last five outings also yielded four wins and one defeat, with 14 goals scored and 6 conceded. They defeated Volzhanin Kostroma 3:1 at home on 24 September, then beat Tekstilshchik 3:1 away on 23 September. A 3:0 win over Kama came on 22 September, followed by a 3:1 home victory against Lokomotiv Izumrud on 11 September. Their sole defeat was 2:3 away to Stroitel Minsk on 10 September.

Both teams occupy first place in their respective standings. Chelyabinsk also sit top with 9 points from 3 matches, though their table entry shows 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses. The second table listing for Chelyabinsk shows 7 points from 3 matches with 2 wins and 1 loss, but the primary entry stands at 9 points from 3 matches.

The model expects Novyi Urengoy to score 10.2 goals and Chelyabinsk 0.2. The probability of a draw sits at 0%, both teams to score at 0%, and three or more goals combined at 0%. These figures suggest a one-sided encounter where the home side dominates without the visitors finding the net.

This conclusion stops holding if Chelyabinsk manage to score. The model's 0% probability for both teams scoring means any away goal would overturn the forecast. A draw suits neither side given the current projections, but a single goal from Chelyabinsk would shift the entire landscape of this match.