Puerto Montt vs Colo Colo: match prediction on 3 September 2026

Puerto Montt to win. The visitors have lost every one of their last five matches while the hosts have won four of five, and the momentum gap is significant.

Recent form

Puerto Montt have won four of their last five games, collecting 12 points and scoring 416 to 356. Their only defeat came away to Valdivia 74-80 on 9 August. They beat Naviera Ulloa 92-72 at home on 18 August, Ancud 88-66 away on 15 August, Espanol Osorno 82-79 at home on 11 August, and CD Puerto Varas 80-59 at home on 3 August.

Colo Colo have lost all five of their last five matches without a single point. They lost away to Puente Alto CD 72-85 on 14 August, then suffered defeats at home to Universidad de Concepcion 72-93 on 9 August, Leones Quilpue 60-61 on 6 August, Espanol de Talca 67-80 away on 2 August, and Universidad Catolica 70-81 at home on 31 July.

Table position

Both sides sit fifth in the LNB table after 12 matches, each with 4 wins and 8 losses. The identical records mean this fixture carries weight for both teams, though the recent run of results has pulled them apart in practice. Colo Colo have not won a game since before the end of July.

Model expectations

The model projects both sides to score 75.3 points, which suggests a tight contest on paper. That figure is built on season-long averages rather than the current form trajectory. The model does not yet factor in the visitors' collapse.

What breaks the prediction

A draw would be the primary threat, and given how Colo Colo have been running the clock down in their losses, that remains the main scenario where the home win does not materialise. The model's 0% draw probability is an outlier, not a guarantee of what happens on the court.

Statistical context

Puerto Montt average 68.7 points per match over their last ten games, with 7.5 three-pointers made from 25.2 attempts. Colo Colo average 68.4 points, with 7.4 three-pointers made from 25.7 attempts. The offensive output is nearly identical, leading to the same projection for both. Puerto Montt's defensive numbers are slightly weaker with 21.2 personal fouls per match compared to Colo Colo's 17.0, but the visitors' inability to convert possession into wins tells a different story.

Confidence

65%