Portland Timbers played host to St. Louis City in the MLS regular season, round 24, at Providence Park on September 10th. The match finished 2-2, a result that kept both sides hovering in the middle of the table. We had backed Portland for victory at 46 per cent confidence, but the game took a different turn and that prediction didn't materialise.
There is no minute-by-minute record for this fixture, but the match was decided by moments rather than sustained pressure. Portland started with more territory — they made 113 attacks compared to St. Louis's 89 — yet the visitors created more clear-cut opportunities. Four big chances against one for the hosts tells you where the danger really lay.
By then the statistics begin to make sense. Portland held 52 per cent possession and completed 389 passes, while St. Louis managed 377 from 442 attempts. But expected goals tell a different story entirely: 0.92 for Portland versus 1.86 for the visitors. They were out of sight by half-time, to be fair, and that is why the scoreboard didn't reflect the flow of the game.
The defensive numbers are instructive as well. St. Louis made 29 clearances to Portland's 14, and completed 25 tackles against seven. They were busy, they were organised, and they didn't let the tie slip once it was in their hands. Portland's goalkeeper pulled off two saves, St. Louis's one — a reflection of who was under more pressure.
Shots tell the final part of the story. Portland registered 11 shots, three on target, with just 19 per cent accuracy. St. Louis had 12 shots, four on target, at 40 per cent accuracy. They found a way through when it mattered, and Portland's attacks went begging despite the volume.
The table doesn't move much after a draw like this. Portland remain seventh on 32 points from 24 games, while St. Louis hold sixth place on 38 points. Both sides have played the same number of matches, and the gap remains six points. Cup football has its own rules, but this was league football — and the standings will look much the same when the next round arrives.