Corinthians and Chapecoense played out a 1-1 draw at Neo Química Arena on Saturday evening in the 26th round of Brazil's Serie A. We had backed the hosts for all three points with 61 per cent confidence, but the match refused to follow that script. The result leaves Corinthians ten points clear of the relegation zone and Chapecoense still rooted to bottom place.
Matheus Bidu gave Corinthians the lead just two minutes in, a swift strike that set the tone for what followed. Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior equalised for the visitors forty minutes on, but then the game turned. Breno Bidon appeared to have restored the hosts' advantage in stoppage time before the VAR decision came back to cancel the goal. To be fair, Chapecoense showed more resilience than their table position suggests.
Corinthians dominated possession at 62 per cent and created six big chances, yet they could only convert one of their six shots on target. The visitors won most aerial duels and cleared twenty-eight times, while their goalkeeper made five saves from five attempts on goal. Expected goals told the real story: 2.12 for the hosts against 0.95 for the visitors, though the final score told a different tale.
Four yellow cards were shown in total, with Chapecoense picking up three while Corinthians picked up just one. Giovanni Augusto and Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira were both substituted in the sixty-first minute, a double change that seemed to signal a shift in approach. Memphis Depay came on for the hosts in the sixty-sixth, but Corinthians never got going after that cancelled goal.
The result means Corinthians remain ten places above the drop zone with thirty-five points from twenty-six matches. Chapecoense have now lost fifteen of their twenty-five games and sit twenty points adrift of safety. By then, the prediction makers will be reflecting on how often matches refuse to go to plan.
